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Erudite AfricaCenter of Excellence
← Financial Modeling and Company Valuation

Historical analysis and forecasting

Module 02 / 5 · 65 min

Read the past with ratios and normalized earnings, then forecast revenue, costs, working capital, capex, tax and debt from clear drivers.

In this module you will learn to

  • Prepare common-size statements and the key profitability, efficiency and leverage ratios
  • Normalize earnings for one-off items such as the foreign exchange losses that followed the 2024 float
  • Forecast revenue from volume and price drivers and costs from their structure
  • Forecast working capital in days, capex and depreciation, tax at the 30% corporate rate and a debt schedule

Built on

  • Erudite Africa training module: Ethiopian Context, topic 3.a Financial Modeling and Company Valuation, Levels 1 and 2 and the Level 3 outline (October 2026)
  • Erudite Africa Training Module: Ethiopian Context, programme overview and regulatory register (October 2026)
  • Income Tax Proclamation No. 979/2016 as amended by Proclamation No. 1395/2025; Value Added Tax Proclamation No. 1341/2024; Financial Reporting Proclamation No. 847/2014 (status to confirm)
  • NBE directives as listed in the lessons: FXD/01/2024, FXD/04/2026, SBB/95/2025, SBB/78/2021 (reported); NBE Monetary Policy Committee release No. 7 (July 2026)
  • ECMA public offer directive (reported as No. 1030/2024) and the ESX Rulebook (December 2024)
  • The FAST modeling standard and IFRS (IAS 16, IAS 29, IFRS 16) as general professional references

Examples and companies are fictional. Bank practices are shown as typical Ethiopian practice, not as any one bank's policy. Always apply your own institution's approved policy and the current NBE directives.